Mesoscale Discussion 2306
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring isolated damaging wind gusts to portions of northern Georgia and the Carolina Piedmont through this evening. These storms could produce peak wind gusts of up to 60 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 181813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181813 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-182015- Mesoscale Discussion 2306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia into the Carolina Piedmont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181813Z - 182015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring some potential for isolated damaging wind gusts through this evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms have begun to initiate across portions of the central Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont as surface temperatures have risen into the low-90s F amid continued insolation. Poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit overall convective intensity and organization; however, MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and PW around 1.75-2.00 inches (as supported by a modified 12z GSO observed sounding and current objective analysis) are supportive of at least some potential for isolated damaging downburst wind gusts (with peak gust magnitudes likely in the 45-55 mph range). Locally greater potential may exist across portions of central North Carolina where the latest observational trends and CAM guidance are suggestive of greater storm coverage. Trends will continue to be monitored, but the overall severe threat is likely to remain too isolated and limited in magnitude to warrant watch issuance. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 09/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 34878398 36088112 36557996 36717935 36717887 36657860 36497839 36107816 35717814 35347826 34897868 34377963 33928105 33578270 33518354 33588423 33788465 33978476 34328463 34658430 34878398 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH