Mesoscale Discussion 1715
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle. These storms may produce wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to 1.25 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 231814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231813 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-231945- Mesoscale Discussion 1715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Areas affected...northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231813Z - 231945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa. Temperatures in the upper 90sF with dewpoints near 50F in the adjacent Plains have mostly eroded CINH across the area. While instability remains relatively weak, it may be sufficient to maintain these storms as they move off the higher terrain and eventually into a more unstable airmass to the east. Shear is mostly weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts. In the short term, the next 1 to 2 hours, watch potential is low. However, as further destabilization continues and storms move toward the more favorable airmass across southwest Kansas, watch potential will increase later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36460434 37150470 37810479 38010427 38240280 38170180 37920119 37130112 36720134 36160195 36040363 36460434 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN