Day 1 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-10-03 00:46 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-10-03 01:00 – 2026-10-03 12:00 UTC

Summary

Occasional thunderstorms are expected along and southeast of a frontal zone stretching from the southern Plains toward the Mid-Atlantic overnight, though the potential for severe weather remains low.

Product Text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 030046 SWODY1 SPC AC 030044 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through the night. ... 01 UTC Update ... Showers and the occasional thunderstorm will continue along and southeast of a slow moving frontal zone draped from the southern Plains northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. Instability is rather limited to the south of this front owing to poor lapse-rates, and vertical shear is weak. Thus, while the occasional thunderstorm may occur, the severe potential is low. Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes may occur toward sunrise across the north-central US. Here, a short-wave trough moving through the stronger mid-level flow will overhead, bringing with it modest large-scale ascent. Temperatures in the 40Fs to low 50Fs with dewpoints in the 40Fs should limit instability and the overall potential for more widespread thunderstorm coverage. ..Marsh.. 10/03/2026 $$