Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are expected this evening across portions of southern Iowa, the Upper Great Lakes, the Ozark Plateau, and parts of the Southwest. Additional risks of large hail and strong winds continue through tonight for parts of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and the Dakotas.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 080047 SWODY1 SPC AC 080045 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this evening, with large hail and severe winds the main threats. The severe risk should gradually decrease through 05z (midnight local time). ...Iowa into northern Wisconsin/U.P. of Michigan... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continue this evening across parts of IA and the U.P. of MI ahead of a surface cold front. Some additional re-development may occur along the front across central/southern IA over the next few hours, while convection further north gradually decreases in intensity over the next couple of hours. Isolated large hail and strong/locally damaging wind gusts remain possible. Reference MCD 1857 for more information. Further south, severe probabilities were trimmed across portions of the MO Valley, where thunderstorm potential appears limited overnight. ...AZ/NM into the TX Panhandle... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will persist for a few more hours across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and far west-central OK. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazards with this activity given the hot, well-mixed boundary layer. Some of the stronger storms could sporadically produce large hail. Overall severe risk should gradually wane with loss of daytime heating after 03z. Further southwest, isolated thunderstorms moving off higher terrain into portions of southern AZ and southwest NM will pose a risk for strong wind gusts the next few hours. Storm coverage currently is fairly sparse, and it is uncertain if sufficient clustering will occur and spread west/southwest into lower elevations. Given uncertainty, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. ...Ozark Plateau... Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours this evening within the moderately unstable environment. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible, but thunderstorm intensity should gradually wane over the next 1-3 hours. Reference MCD 1858 for more information. ...SD/NE... A conditional large hail risk remains late tonight/early Saturday across parts of southern SD into northern NE. Forecast guidance still suggests isolated elevated thunderstorms will develop within a corridor of favorable elevated instability and 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. If storms develop, large hail will be possible. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Locally gusty winds may continue another hour or two with a thunderstorm cluster of WV and another cluster in CT. Thunderstorm activity may persist across parts of the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic beyond 02-03z, but overall severe potential is expected to largely be diminished by then due to loss of daytime and increasing boundary layer stabilization. ..Leitman.. 08/08/2026 $$