Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-08-17 12:56 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, are possible across much of the central and eastern United States on Monday, August 17. Marginal to slight risks for these severe weather phenomena are expected throughout the day in various regions including parts of the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Plains.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 171256 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026 VALID TIME 171300Z - 181200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 40669992 40760105 41130149 42090150 43010122 43510083 43970019 44569872 44749805 44819755 44789707 44629652 44249627 43809619 43299629 42659649 42029687 41599732 41289767 40749907 40669992 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 39610025 39760126 39970204 40590285 41390328 42510335 43650311 44230261 44670196 44920097 45160027 46109863 46589786 46849726 46969663 46899592 46699515 46309467 45879447 45329425 44699416 44099418 43439440 42599487 41649571 40719678 40039793 39759907 39610025 0.15 40669998 40760098 41140147 42050153 43050126 43590084 44040022 44399934 44859796 44959712 44699648 44389610 43939595 43419603 42609638 42019678 41259769 40749905 40669998 && ... WIND ... 0.05 33798591 33988702 33998704 34418743 34898748 35378724 35948665 36808514 37698355 38718239 39378130 39718001 39697910 39337801 38877760 37777710 37067689 35937719 35197769 34687823 34307903 34038072 33798344 33798591 0.05 38700338 40720319 42250341 43350488 44520688 45200859 45660956 46131046 46761073 47521027 48040933 48480737 48400619 48130585 47040511 46000433 45500343 45170223 45310081 45280031 46109914 46919857 47529811 47909751 48069659 48049590 47969524 47699431 47379384 46919344 46099323 45259318 44479321 43799352 42769410 41909499 40509671 37570038 36530198 36570316 36810369 37480382 38700338 0.05 34459743 34729829 35109884 35559908 36029906 36299880 36439839 36389812 35939761 35469595 35369447 35399333 35379204 35259148 34949112 34629126 34349185 34239223 34269302 34219430 34229552 34369651 34459743 0.15 34788266 34658454 34738526 34948578 35128588 35518585 35998514 36558374 36958205 37068055 36867897 36647837 36427823 35917826 35587849 35297884 35137947 34978096 34788266 0.15 40659994 40760103 41130148 42110153 43050126 43550085 43990023 44429924 44809852 45599760 46129692 46299649 46299586 46189551 45669520 45119508 44089523 43349557 42089668 41269765 40729911 40659994 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... SLGT 35518585 35998514 36558374 36958205 37068055 36867897 36647837 36427823 35917826 35587849 35297884 35137947 34658454 34738526 34948578 35128588 35518585 SLGT 43050126 43590084 44040022 44439922 44809852 46129692 46299649 46299586 46189551 45669520 45119508 44089523 43349557 42089668 41269765 40729911 40659994 40760103 41130148 42050153 43050126 MRGL 36029906 36299880 36439839 36389812 35939761 35469595 35369447 35379204 35259148 34949112 34629126 34239223 34229552 34459743 34729829 35109884 35559908 36029906 MRGL 35378724 35948665 37698355 38718239 39378130 39718001 39697910 39337801 38877760 37777710 37067689 35937719 35197769 34687823 34307903 34038072 33798344 33798591 33998704 34418743 34898748 35378724 MRGL 47521027 48040933 48480737 48400619 48130585 46000433 45500343 45170223 45310081 45280031 46109914 47529811 47909751 48069659 47969524 47699431 47379384 46919344 46099323 44479321 42769410 41909499 37570038 36530198 36570316 36810369 37480382 38700338 40720319 42250341 43350488 44520688 45200859 46131046 46761073 47521027 TSTM 47068398 46818433 44638886 41919157 40899289 40139561 39699696 38789751 38109732 37859686 37539456 37489199 38158763 39498591 40398460 41108135 41268055 42007982 42707854 44027467 46346660 99999999 31181280 33071129 33561104 34511157 35371243 36041213 36001176 35911124 35441019 36240801 38120778 40260607 42040496 42690580 42720746 42211115 41541256 39971397 39281578 40221668 41241607 42051587 42351663 42661699 43071660 42871516 43031309 43281232 43611252 43841402 44281563 44421631 43801840 43711914 43991961 44501982 45411867 46331664 47171479 47681447 48421506 49741578 99999999 26739985 26599798 25579705 99999999 28777988 28248001 27808034 27588084 27508146 27648228 27948300 28218343 99999999 28619098 29459208 29939248 30339233 31119117 32079004 32598984 33099080 33529256 33879599 34269973 34650274 34130449 33540495 31830448 30840402 29850391 29230386 28630384 && THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CHA 0 - CSV 40 SSE LOZ 40 NNE TRI 10 SE PSK 30 NE DAN 20 W AVC 20 SSW AVC 20 WNW RWI 25 SE RDU 20 N FAY 10 SW SOP 40 ENE RMG 20 S CHA 35 W CHA 40 W CHA 50 NW CHA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW VTN 55 NNW VTN 25 S PIR 45 N 9V9 30 NNW HON 55 S FAR 45 SSE FAR 35 S DTL 20 NNW AXN 15 SSE AXN 40 N RWF 35 SSW RWF 20 S OTG 25 SW SUX 20 SW OLU 0 - EAR 45 NE MCK 30 SW LBF 45 N IML 25 W MHN 40 WNW VTN THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CSM 35 SSW AVK 30 SSE AVK 10 W END 35 SSE END 40 NNW MLC 0 - FSM 35 SW BVX 35 SSE BVX 60 SSE BVX 50 NE PBF 20 WNW PBF 40 N PRX 25 WNW ADM 10 NE FSI 25 SE CSM 15 NNE CSM 50 N CSM THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MSL 15 S BNA 15 NW JKL 25 NNE HTS 0 - PKB 0 - MGW 45 SSE LBE 0 - MRB 30 W DCA 20 NNE RIC 40 SE RIC 40 E RWI 25 N OAJ 35 NNW ILM 45 N CRE 25 ENE CAE 15 SSW AHN 15 NNW ANB 35 NNW BHM 25 SSE MSL 15 NE MSL 50 NNE MSL THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LWT 40 SSE HVR 40 WNW GGW 25 ENE GGW 15 W OLF 25 S BHK 0 - 2WX 55 S Y22 25 SW MBG 20 SSE MBG 60 SSW JMS 50 NNE JMS 15 WSW GFK 20 W TVF 35 NNW BJI 30 ENE BJI 45 W HIB 45 SW HIB 50 ESE BRD 30 S MSP 15 NNE FOD 20 ESE DNS 25 WSW DDC 35 S EHA 10 N CAO 40 NW CAO 30 ENE TAD 40 SSE LIC 30 SSW SNY 25 NNE BFF 50 NNE DGW 20 SSE SHR 40 S BIL 30 N LVM 50 WNW 3HT 50 NW LWT GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ANJ 25 N ANJ 45 NNW OSH 10 ENE CID 30 SSE OXV 0 - FNB 40 NNW MHK 10 E SLN 30 N ICT 35 ENE ICT 25 N JLN 20 SSE TBN 10 NNW EVV 25 SE IND 40 NNW DAY 15 NNE CAK 0 - YNG 20 ESE ERI 20 SSE BUF 35 SW SLK 60 ENE HUL ...CONT... 120 S GBN 50 ESE PHX 55 E PHX 45 S FLG 45 SSW GCN 0 - GCN 20 E GCN 60 NNE FLG 40 NE INW 35 SSE FMN 25 SSE MTJ 60 NE EGE 40 W TOR 20 W DGW 65 NNW RWL 65 N EVW 35 NW OGD 50 S ENV 20 SSE P68 30 SSE BAM 35 NNW EKO 15 ENE OWY 35 NW OWY 45 E REO 40 SSW BOI 45 NW TWF 25 WNW PIH 20 SW IDA 25 WNW IDA 25 NNE SUN 45 SSE MYL 35 SSW MYL 30 ENE BNO 10 NW BNO 45 NW BNO 75 NW BNO 20 SSE PDT 20 E LWS 40 SE 3TH 45 SSW GPI 40 W GPI 120 NW GPI ...CONT... 60 SSW LRD 30 NNE MFE 35 SE BRO ...CONT... 65 NE MLB 40 ENE MLB 10 NNE VRB 25 W VRB 15 SW AGR 25 NE SRQ 20 W PIE 50 WNW PIE ...CONT... 70 SSW HUM 25 S 7R4 25 WNW 7R4 25 WNW LFT 35 SSE HEZ 15 S JAN 25 NE JAN 30 SSE GLH 25 NE ELD 25 ESE DUA 35 ESE CDS 40 ENE CVS 60 N ROW 30 NW ROW 20 E GDP 30 N MRF 35 S MRF 80 S MRF 120 S MRF