Mesoscale Discussion 2301
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Sporadic strong wind gusts up to 60 mph may occur with increasing thunderstorm activity across northeast Kansas, northern and central Missouri, and central Illinois through this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 151936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151935 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-152130- Mesoscale Discussion 2301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Areas affected...northeast KS into northern/central MO and central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151935Z - 152130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through late afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts may accompany this activity through the evening hours. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms are developing along a pre-frontal trough and residual outflow from eastern KS through north-central MO into IL this afternoon. This activity is developing well ahead of a surface cold front within the hotter, well-mixed boundary layer, and on the southern periphery of strong effective shear closer to the cold front. These initial storms will pose a risk for sporadic strong wind gusts within the moderately unstable and steep low-level lapse rates environment. Modest vertical shear will generally limit a more organized risk, though a few gusts around 50-60 mph could accompany stronger cells. Additional development may occur closer to the cold front as it continues to develop southward through evening. While stronger vertical shear will exist closer to the boundary, convection will likely tend to develop over, or quickly move to, the cool side of the boundary given poor low-level convergence and deeper-layer boundary-parallel flow. While sporadic strong wind gusts could accompany stronger convection, the overall risk is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38629615 39459530 40079410 41009043 41478816 41088774 40398777 39618806 38768926 38269089 38049299 37969524 37979606 38399621 38629615 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN