Mesoscale Discussion 2116
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe winds from high-based thunderstorms may affect southeast Wyoming, the Colorado Front Range, and northern New Mexico through early evening. These storms could produce wind gusts of up to 80 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 241936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241936 COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-242130- Mesoscale Discussion 2116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range and far northern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241936Z - 242130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming, central Colorado, and far north/northeast New Mexico will pose a risk of severe winds through early evening. Watch issuance is not expected given very limited buoyancy. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows steady cumulus development along the CO Front Range within a weak upslope flow regime as well as across southeast WY in proximity to a weak low/mid-level MCV. Recent ACARs soundings from Denver, CO, along with the KFTG VWP, sampled 15-20 knot westerly flow within the CAPE-bearing layer that should promote eastward translation of convection off of the higher terrain through late afternoon. These soundings also sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions with LCLs just under 3 km. Although the very dry low-level conditions are limiting overall buoyancy magnitudes (SBCAPE is generally estimated to be around 250-500 J/kg per mesoanalysis and representative forecast soundings), they are highly favorable for intense downbursts capable of producing swaths of severe winds. This idea is reflected by a collection of recent CAM solutions, which generally depict sporadic swaths of 60-75 mph gusts as convection slowly intensifies and spreads east over the next few hours. The very limited CAPE and modest kinematic environment should modulate convective intensity and longevity (and preclude the need for a watch), and convection should steadily weaken in tandem with nocturnal cooling later this evening. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 37030490 38920488 40250551 40910551 41380531 41580487 41630430 41510394 41220368 40820364 39220349 36960379 36680391 36480418 36470457 36600481 37030490 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH