Mesoscale Discussion 1533
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur across eastern Texas and central Louisiana this afternoon. These gusts could reach up to 60 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 071743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071742 LAZ000-TXZ000-071915- Mesoscale Discussion 1533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Texas into central Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071742Z - 071915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts may occur this afternoon. The severe threat should remain isolated overall, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data both show a re-intensification of a thunderstorm cluster, which is gradually organizing into a southward-sagging MCS structure. The southwest flank of this MCS is beginning to interact with a relatively pristine airmass preceding a stalled outflow boundary remnant from earlier convection. Here, surface temperatures are exceeding 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer shear is weak, the aforementioned buoyancy should support wet downbursts capable of damaging gusts, especially with cold pool mergers along the leading line. Given poor vertical wind shear, the severe threat should be isolated, with a WW issuance not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30239356 30529454 31079579 31669678 32029708 32209706 32359689 32529658 32719607 32869563 32759494 32479414 32199355 31799266 31489233 31089223 30839239 30419279 30239356 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH