Day 3 Convective Outlook
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000 ACUS03 KWNS 050736 SWODY3 SPC AC 050735 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A vorticity maximum and associated jet streak within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to translate into the northern High Plains by Sunday night. Meanwhile, a short-wave trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes through southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a 40-50 kt wind maximum in the mid levels. At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated front are expected to remain quasi-stationary over the western Dakotas Sunday, prior to advancing slowly east Sunday night. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A hot, pre-frontal air mass is expected to develop Sunday afternoon with steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s contributing to moderate instability. Wrap-around moisture on the backside of the surface front will support air mass destabilization across portions of eastern MT into northeast WY as well. The models suggest potentially separate severe thunderstorm regimes evolving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated storms appear possible along favored terrain of central MT into northeast WY, aided by increasing height falls downstream from the approaching vorticity maximum and jet streak. Additional storms appear possible along the surface front across the western Dakotas as the strong boundary-layer heating erodes the capping. Strengthening vertical shear will support supercells capable of mainly large hail in post-frontal regime, and large to very large hail and severe wind gusts within the pre-frontal warm sector. Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen during the evening; however, relatively high LCLs are expected to limit a robust tornado threat. The severe-weather threat may continue into Sunday night, especially across western and central ND. ...Mid-Atlantic... Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front. Latest model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Forecast soundings indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early evening. ..Mead.. 06/05/2026 $$