Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-06-19 08:17 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-06-22 12:00 – 2026-06-27 12:00 UTC

Summary

Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. A severe weather threat may also develop across portions of the central High Plains on Tuesday.

Product Text

000 ACUS48 KWNS 190817 SWOD48 SPC AC 190815 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored. Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2026