Mesoscale Discussion 1840
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to severe wind gusts are possible across parts of southeast Arizona through late evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 060448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060447 AZZ000-060615- Mesoscale Discussion 1840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southeast AZ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060447Z - 060615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for strong to severe gusts may continue through late evening, before an expected weakening trend overnight. DISCUSSION...Vigorous convection has persisted this evening across southeast AZ, while the northern portion of a large MCS and related outflow over northeast Sonora has moved northwest across the border. Moderate buoyancy remains in areas that have not been convectively overturned, though CINH is beginning to increase with the onset of nocturnal cooling. While convection should eventually subside overnight, the presence of multiple surging outflows may allow for a continuation of deep convection and a threat of strong to severe gusts through late evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC... LAT...LON 31481213 32241206 32511112 32270989 31890948 31500936 31330948 31181049 31221131 31481213 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN