Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Unsettled weather patterns may bring scattered thunderstorms to the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast through the upcoming weekend. Potential for more organized severe convection is possible in the High Plains and parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week.
Product Text
000 ACUS48 KWNS 010902 SWOD48 SPC AC 010900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region. Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2026