Mesoscale Discussion 2146
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and an occasional tornado may develop across central and eastern New York, northeast Pennsylvania, southwest Vermont, and western Massachusetts during the late afternoon. These storms are expected to increase in intensity over the next few hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 271651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271651 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-271845- Mesoscale Discussion 2146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern New York...northeast Pennsylvania...southwest Vermont...and western Massachusetts Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271651Z - 271845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather is expected to increase by 18-20Z. The predominant hazard will be damaging wind gusts, with marginally severe hail and a brief tornado or two also possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely. DISCUSSION...In the wake of early-day showers and thunderstorms now shifting east of I-81 northeast of Syracuse, visible satellite imagery indicates deepening cumulus development over the Finger Lakes into north-central PA. There, cloud breaks have allowed for greater air mass destabilization to occur with steepening low-level lapse rates. While specific details regarding thunderstorm evolution remain uncertain, recent model guidance indicates a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity over the next 2-3 hours from west to east across the region amidst a warming boundary layer with MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500+ J/kg. A belt of enhanced (30-35 kt) westerly mid-level flow observed by the 12Z Buffalo and Pittsburgh soundings and current VWPs will yield sufficient vertical shear for some storm organization, including bowing and transient supercell structures. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts, which will be most likely in areas that see stronger heating and the resultant steepening of low-level lapse rates. Marginally severe hail also appears possible. The greatest potential for a tornado or two will exist with any supercell structures in the Hudson Valley, where backed surface winds will yield a corridor of stronger low-level shear. ..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 41447693 42027708 42557692 43047635 43877500 44147411 44147369 43967336 43237307 42277308 42067366 41547492 41217577 41107635 41237675 41447693 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN