Day 3 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Widespread thunderstorms are possible across much of the country on Thursday, though organized severe weather is generally not expected. There is a potential for isolated severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the interior Northwest, as well as a threat of heavy rainfall across southwest Texas.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 141928 SWODY3 SPC AC 141927 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone is expected to remain in place over parts of Labrador and northern Quebec on Thursday. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to move through the base of the attendant trough across parts of northern New England. To the west, a mid/upper-level cyclone off of the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to move north-northeastward toward Vancouver Island. Farther south, a persistent mid/upper-level trough will continue to bring a threat of widespread convection and heavy rainfall across parts of southwest TX and vicinity. Thunderstorm potential will cover a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak mid/upper-level flow should limit potential for organized convection across most areas. ...Northern New England... A strong reinforcing front will accompany the mid/upper shortwave moving across northern New England on Thursday. Guidance varies considerably regarding the extent of heating and destabilization along/ahead of this front. The more aggressive guidance (such as the NAM NEST and RRFS) depicts MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, sufficient for organized convection given the strength of the low-midlevel wind fields. Other guidance depicts very limited destabilization and severe potential. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and timing of the front, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Mid-Atlantic... While large-scale ascent will generally be weak, strong heating in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone may allow for isolated storm development across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity on Thursday. Low-level flow will be weak and deep-layer shear will be modest at best, but localized strong/damaging gusts could occur, if sustained storms develop within this hot and well-mixed regime. ...Interior Northwest... While the magnitude of diurnal destabilization across parts of the interior Northwest remains uncertain, some potential for strong-storm development could evolve as stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the offshore low overspreads the region. This area will continue to be monitored regarding the need for severe probabilities. ..Dean.. 07/14/2026 $$