Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-07-06 09:02 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-07-09 12:00 – 2026-07-14 12:00 UTC

Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic by early next week.

Product Text

000 ACUS48 KWNS 060902 SWOD48 SPC AC 060900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026