Mesoscale Discussion 2329
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
An isolated supercell thunderstorm may persist through sunset across parts of the NE Sand Hills region, bringing the potential for severe hail, strong gusts, and a brief tornado threat.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 272328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272327 NEZ000-280100- Mesoscale Discussion 2329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the NE Sand Hills region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272327Z - 280100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may continue through sunset, with additional development possible. DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary supercell is ongoing across west-central Cherry County Nebraska this evening. While deep-layer flow/shear is generally rather modest, locally enhanced effective SRH near a surface boundary is likely helping to sustain this supercell, within a moderately unstable environment. MRMS data suggest that this cell is likely producing severe hail, and it will continue to pose a hail threat and potential for locally strong gusts for as long as it persists. 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 may also be sufficient for a brief tornado threat. This storm has generally remained nearly stationary, but some slow southward propagation will be possible for as long as it persists. Other recent development has been noted across western Cherry County. While uncertain, this additional development within a favorable environment could eventually evolve into a supercell as well, or help to maintain the dominant supercell through cell mergers. The ongoing surface-based storms should generally begin to weaken near/after dusk, as MLCINH begins to increase with nocturnal cooling. ..Dean/Hart.. 09/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF... LAT...LON 42690186 42640139 42540107 42190097 41810101 41790148 41780260 42230244 42450228 42690186 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN