Mesoscale Discussion 1888
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts may develop over southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri, and southwest Iowa through late tonight. The threat is expected to be localized and limited in duration.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 100208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100207 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100400- Mesoscale Discussion 1888 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southwest Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100207Z - 100400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized corridor of severe hail and wind potential may emerge over the next few hours across southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and into adjacent portions of northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. However, this threat will likely remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convective trends have been monitored over the past hour as an isolated thunderstorm developed across far southeast NE and crossed the MO River. More recently, additional attempts at deep convection are noted in radar and GOES IR imagery, and appear to be driven by strengthening isentropic ascent across a warm frontal zone as the nocturnal jet begins to slowly intensify (0-2 km winds have been increasing to 30-40 knots in upstream VWPs over the past 30-45 minutes). Despite a somewhat focused zone for initiation, the placement of this zone within the upper-level ridge axis suggests synoptic-scale forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear is limited for storm maintenance and/or intensification. The relatively short lifespan and recent demise of the initial cell crossing the MO River reflects these mitigating factors, despite an otherwise highly favorable thermodynamic environment (MUCAPE analyzed upwards of 4000-5000 J/kg). Over the next few hours, the expectation is for additional development of isolated cells and perhaps a few clusters to the north of the surface warm front. Very strong instability will favor robust updraft development that may pose a threat for isolated large hail and perhaps strong to severe downbursts. However, given the buoyancy-driven nature of this convection within a modestly sheared environment, storm organization and longevity may be limited. Furthermore, this activity should primarily reside within an MUCIN minimum co-located with the strongest isentropic ascent. Storm maintenance out of this corridor seems unlikely, and should spatially confine the severe threat. Given these limitations, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41009548 40999452 40759396 40509375 40049369 39769384 39439415 39369496 39069709 39079756 39539796 39979789 41009548 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN