Mesoscale Discussion 1650
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado are expected to affect the lower Great Lakes vicinity, including western New York, northeast Ohio, and northwestern Pennsylvania, through the early evening. The most severe threats include wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to 1.25 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 181928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181928 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-182100- Mesoscale Discussion 1650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492...494... Valid 181928Z - 182100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492, 494 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds will continue, particularly where surface heating has been greatest. Isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible in western New York with convection near the warm front. DISCUSSION...Convection within western New York continues to moves southeast. Stronger cells in the vicinity of Rochester/Buffalo will pose a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat with these cells is nonzero, but it is conditional on airmass recovery from the southwest as these cells are within outflow currently. Small linear segments are also evident farther southwest within southwestern Ontario. This activity will move through Lake Erie and eventually impact northeast Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania. Temperatures along the lake shore are nearing 90 F. Wind damage would be possible in these areas over the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX... LAT...LON 42608335 42858309 42918171 43367897 43127703 42607570 42257560 42007603 41867816 41438010 41218192 41318298 41928350 42608335 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN