Mesoscale Discussion 2334
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Stronger storms in portions of southeastern Arizona may produce brief tornadoes or severe gusts through the afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 292027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292026 NMZ000-AZZ000-292200- Mesoscale Discussion 2334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292026Z - 292200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A severe gust or brief tornado may occur with one of the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should remain sparse, with a WW issuance not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Clearing skies and boundary-layer heating/mixing ahead of a confluence zone, accompanying an approaching inverted surface trough, will support continued gradual convective intensification through the day. MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown strengthening storms over eastern Pima to eastern Cochise counties over the past hours. With surface temperatures reaching 70+ F in spots, amid low 60s F dewpoints, additional storm development is likely ahead of a developing 500 mb low over southeastern AZ. Buoyancy exceeds 500 J/kg MLCAPE over this region, along with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Any of the stronger storms that can root into the boundary layer may become surface based and spawn either a brief tornado or severe gust. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat. A WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC... LAT...LON 31610908 31310922 31250978 31241043 31231075 31291100 31461100 32221085 32721040 32980978 32990935 32750906 32220900 31610908 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH