Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-07-21 20:03 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind are expected across parts of the central and southern United States through Wednesday morning. An enhanced risk of severe weather is centered over portions of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley regions, with slight and marginal risks extending across much of the Southeast and Midwest.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 212003 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026 VALID TIME 212000Z - 221200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 35787449 36097631 36877894 36858112 36128476 36658744 37278834 37918800 40888193 42928107 0.02 45507473 44167348 42647198 40727162 0.05 36707449 36667565 36657644 36947730 37367769 38037749 38647730 39217784 39237841 38707901 38167957 37668124 37368359 37168501 37208558 37178598 37248642 37518693 37888689 38208652 39078476 40018253 40388177 40357969 40317793 40817653 41707556 42517546 43187513 43357468 43327418 43187329 42627270 42227217 41927214 41397243 41027294 40717337 40067336 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 38627422 38037724 37498084 37038320 35808770 35428992 35699078 36329101 37069046 38678784 40738327 41688241 43168122 99999999 44977701 43357406 41667315 39757254 0.15 38008741 39178414 40787981 42047797 42507666 41957548 41297495 40597471 40097458 39627455 39217492 39017546 38647716 38367891 37638245 37058595 36988718 37298790 38008741 && ... WIND ... 0.05 45647302 44137188 40757092 0.05 34897476 34677763 34388386 34808738 34529019 34889174 35589236 36279228 36559207 37049163 37469094 37619024 38948787 40918448 41728357 42228373 42858337 43418284 44028114 0.05 41631328 41431177 40741024 40100935 39360907 38560918 37830942 37240997 37091076 37281143 37691237 38031304 38741391 39651431 40541448 41411388 41631328 0.15 44917583 43237378 41697262 39707257 0.15 36307489 35637743 35728295 35698741 35489003 35569067 35909099 36519134 36959102 37189036 37368997 38118763 40398267 41128168 41908138 42918091 0.30 37107387 36887593 36687956 36318489 36348667 36408749 36808839 37138854 37538839 37928752 38768521 40068260 40508082 40527783 41267640 42327476 42417441 42277360 41717328 40947308 38847271 0.45 38147418 37847519 37447670 37477823 37547892 37927959 38008033 37758194 37578262 37408380 37238492 37278624 37528675 37958676 38238609 38788460 39908253 40088203 40238107 40197926 40297765 40977591 41387511 41327465 40457385 39727336 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... ENH 38047453 37447670 37547892 37927959 38008033 37238492 37278624 37528675 37958676 38788460 39908253 40088203 40238107 40197926 40297765 40977591 41387511 41327465 40457385 39837344 SLGT 44917583 43267382 43187329 42227217 41927214 41397243 41267261 40137258 99999999 36257507 35637743 35728295 35698741 35489003 35569067 35909099 36519134 36959102 38118763 40398267 41128168 42788097 MRGL 41411388 41631328 41431177 40741024 40100935 39360907 38560918 37830942 37240997 37091076 37281143 38031304 38741391 39651431 40541448 41411388 MRGL 45487290 44137188 40757092 99999999 34877500 34677763 34388386 34808738 34529019 34889174 35589236 36279228 37049163 37469094 37619024 40918448 41728357 42228373 42858337 43418284 43848163 TSTM 31541304 33021359 34721484 35291570 35581694 35621797 35981891 36501951 38282074 39232140 39692179 39952212 40152253 40332298 40562350 41172395 41592408 43082420 44412395 45022374 45332353 45542311 45662234 45592145 45342045 45121987 44981897 45051807 45871609 46481468 46661347 46541182 46181012 45970872 45980776 46080647 46190514 46190448 46160299 46100155 45579999 44579858 42999780 42059758 41509746 40759764 39849890 39689952 39500029 39220075 38790097 38510087 38109990 37569817 37319696 37549523 38419292 39189155 40728914 42248730 43288619 44078564 44938467 45678338 46088239 99999999 29269313 30979379 31949398 33139423 34279508 34819580 35189656 35409740 35799884 36129964 36560095 36680169 36710246 36680291 36460351 36150406 35540430 34810446 34170426 33440385 32870355 32260318 31220221 30890205 30490204 29960208 29700202 29430184 && THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E WAL 35 E RIC 20 NE LYH 45 NNW LYH 15 N SSU 45 WNW LOZ 25 NNE BWG 25 ESE OWB 25 NE OWB 25 SSW LUK 20 ESE CMH 10 NW ZZV 20 W HLG 10 SE LBE 40 N HGR 25 SSW AVP 25 SW MSV 25 SSE MSV 15 SSW JFK 60 SSE JFK THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ART 10 WSW GFL 20 ESE GFL 15 WSW ORH 30 SSW ORH 20 WNW GON 30 ENE BDR 55 SSE ISP ...CONT... 60 E ECG 30 ESE RWI 15 SSW HSS 50 SW BNA 30 N MEM 20 S JBR 15 SSW ARG 35 NW ARG 35 WNW POF 10 NW EVV 30 NNE CMH 20 NW CAK 65 NW ERI THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ENV 70 SSE BYI 20 NE OGD 45 WNW VEL 25 SSE VEL 35 WNW GJT 35 ESE CNY 20 N 4BL 35 SW 4BL 30 S U17 25 N PGA 25 N CDC 55 WNW MLF 35 NE ELY 25 WSW ENV 50 N ENV THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW EFK 30 WSW MWN 45 SE BID ...CONT... 45 SE HSE 10 S OAJ 40 NW AHN 15 ENE MSL 40 SSW MEM 30 ENE LIT 45 S FLP 10 ENE FLP 25 NNE UNO 35 SW FAM 15 SE FAM 35 E FWA 15 NE TOL 0 - ARB 20 ESE FNT 25 SSE BAX 70 E BAX GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 50 W GBN 15 WSW EED 65 SSW LAS 40 E NID 15 WSW NID 40 NNE BFL 25 SSE FAT 35 NE SCK 50 N SAC 40 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 15 W RBL 40 WNW RBL 35 ESE EKA 15 NNE ACV 15 SSE CEC 25 S OTH 15 SSE ONP 35 NNE ONP 40 NW SLE 25 W PDX 15 ENE PDX 15 W DLS 40 ESE DLS 65 SW PDT 50 S PDT 20 NW BKE 30 SW P69 40 SW MSO 15 W 3DU 10 ESE HLN 20 SW 3HT 15 NW BIL 40 ENE BIL 35 SW MLS 40 ESE MLS 15 SW BHK 45 SSW DIK 30 ENE Y22 20 E MBG 20 NW HON 20 WNW YKN 10 WNW OFK 0 - OLU 40 ESE GRI 60 S EAR 25 NE HLC 25 WNW HLC 50 WSW HLC 60 NNW GCK 40 NNW GCK 25 N DDC 30 NE P28 35 SE ICT 15 ESE CNU 40 ESE SZL 45 NE COU 20 NNW BMI 45 SE RAC 10 NNE MKG 35 ESE MBL 40 N HTL 40 NNE APN 90 NE APN ...CONT... 60 S LCH 35 W POE 35 SSW SHV 25 SSW TXK 40 WNW DEQ 0 - MLC 40 SSE CQB 10 E OKC 40 NNE CSM 15 SSE GAG 35 S LBL 10 W GUY 40 SSE SPD 20 NE CAO 20 W CAO 45 SSE RTN 45 WNW TCC 55 WSW TCC 65 NNE ROW 40 ENE ROW 25 NW HOB 30 S HOB 50 S MAF 60 N 6R6 35 NNE 6R6 10 SE 6R6 25 SSE 6R6 50 SSE 6R6