Mesoscale Discussion 1824
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
A localized threat of brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts may affect eastern Pennsylvania and parts of the Hudson Valley during the early overnight hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 030429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030429 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-030630- Mesoscale Discussion 1824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026 Areas affected...Eastern PA into parts of the Hudson Valley and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030429Z - 030630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized wind-damage and brief-tornado threat cannot be ruled out into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A long-lived but generally sub-severe storm cluster is currently moving toward eastern PA, with another area of convection gradually developing from eastern PA toward the Hudson Valley, within a low-level warm-advection regime associated with a mid/upper trough extending from Quebec into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. A surface low is centered near Lake Erie, with a surface trough extending south-southwestward from the surface low into the central/southern Appalachians. The surface low/trough will gradually shift eastward into the overnight hours, while the preceding low-level theta-e advection will expand across the Hudson Valley into parts of southern New England. Lapse rates are generally poor across the region (generally 6 C/km or less through most of the troposphere), which will continue to limit updraft intensity. However, rich boundary-layer moisture and gradually strengthening low-level SRH (as depicted in regional VWPs from KDIX and KOKX) may allow for transient storm organization and rotation into the early overnight hours, with a localized threat of a brief tornado and/or localized damaging gusts. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40537499 41017506 41347509 42117487 42447357 42147302 41767274 40717339 40317450 40357478 40537499 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH