Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-07-04 00:51 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms with potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected across parts of the central and eastern United States on July 4. The highest risk of severe weather is centered over portions of the Midwest, with additional marginal risks spanning from the Northeast through the South and Plains.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 040051 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026 VALID TIME 040100Z - 041200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 42739002 42508707 42368695 42248689 41828696 41628714 41268774 41168855 41168923 41099053 41049161 41129268 41429273 42009188 42569070 42739002 0.02 40859816 41129762 41339680 41389641 41179611 41039598 40969595 40789594 40529609 39999667 39379759 38839854 38739959 38980008 39619996 40859816 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 49700198 46299917 44779742 43859598 43059347 42749218 42549022 42588854 42498779 42258729 41958700 41518679 41048702 40558901 39889268 39659382 39369564 38989747 38699816 38029900 37599930 36659984 36130032 35770091 35660130 35670161 35920197 36720241 38330303 39510427 41260526 44190692 45450835 46680840 47460805 48390740 49290636 49650612 0.05 47779610 47959424 47769276 47449224 47039230 45959351 45869542 46309686 47109709 47779610 0.15 41720224 42650308 42900335 43730396 44280397 44570382 44860351 45050304 45070258 45050237 44970175 44810138 44590103 44230025 44110007 42569838 42179752 41929512 41849487 41759475 41749475 41479463 41099460 40619548 41720224 CIG1 41770233 42980341 43670393 44210400 44560386 44900349 45050304 45060259 44970177 44650109 44230025 44090010 42589840 42179746 41949530 41889498 41789478 41469463 41119462 40429524 40119547 39339640 38959790 38689940 38629989 38920019 39729973 40409876 40739834 40989841 41299907 41570094 41770233 && ... WIND ... 0.05 47739619 47979428 47769281 47429226 46949232 45959352 45929554 46299687 47109709 47739619 0.05 37897413 37987626 38167750 39078259 39348479 39068900 38769441 38609580 38549670 38499791 38359818 37939910 36969972 36519990 35870054 35730111 35710144 35750165 35930191 36270212 36750207 37600184 38340163 38870330 39510424 40820508 43270592 45140818 45290828 45530832 45710839 46090841 46990786 48480685 49500635 99999999 49860281 48070263 46920207 46310116 45599964 45069822 44399634 43709444 43549270 43319067 42958795 42848601 43018372 43148182 99999999 44427645 43257430 42417343 41827316 41127302 40197288 0.15 42998100 42778105 42378093 41978059 41547957 41367882 40767658 40567558 40767489 40887449 41007423 41047383 40997362 40477352 40117368 39467406 38967470 38737525 38767613 38887708 39187861 39708090 40358508 40429062 40159247 39379498 39189683 38979791 38819888 38939968 39220027 41710240 43050362 43970403 45210402 45680384 45860344 45970277 45970234 45890121 45600024 45269975 44759883 44189782 43839696 43509599 43219463 42869269 42809105 42638883 42528580 42718391 42888214 0.30 40149756 40589874 41069925 41489962 41829980 42009977 42369948 42389912 41859788 41809686 41919606 41819514 41599499 41229486 40959483 40639503 40259565 40149644 40149756 CIG1 38999591 38819767 38729852 38879975 39190026 41300178 41750228 42280294 43000353 43530386 44340408 45060404 45400358 45500223 45380200 43620011 42579897 42199813 42159717 42089633 42069558 42569248 42279212 41979192 41569189 41209213 40849240 40559284 40239336 39729405 39309488 38999591 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... ENH 42009977 42369948 42389912 41859788 41809686 41919606 41819514 41599499 40959483 40639503 40259565 40149644 40149756 40589874 41489962 41829980 42009977 SLGT 42778105 42378093 41978059 41547957 40567558 41007423 41047383 40997362 40477352 39467406 38967470 38737525 38887708 39708090 40358508 40429062 40159247 39379498 39189683 38819888 38939968 39220027 43050362 43970403 45210402 45680384 45860344 45970277 45890121 45600024 44189782 43839696 43509599 42869269 42528580 42888214 MRGL 44427645 43257430 42417343 41827316 40197288 99999999 49490181 46299917 44789743 43709444 42958795 42848601 43148182 99999999 37917460 37987626 39078259 39348479 38499791 37959905 36519990 35870054 35660130 35670161 35920197 36720241 38330303 39510427 40820508 41130519 44020682 45140818 45450835 46680840 47460805 48390740 49150652 49480636 MRGL 47779610 47979428 47769276 47449224 46949232 45959351 45869542 46299687 47109709 47779610 TSTM 37527475 37807614 37967763 38017902 37877986 37338062 35608244 34708402 34108515 33608602 32978663 32328695 31958701 31038742 30478756 29368764 99999999 30970744 32780748 33200741 33810698 34330639 34590591 34870525 35340425 35580374 35950335 36380324 36790333 37590344 38020372 38410410 38860469 39470543 39850629 40110748 40360925 40341022 40701118 41141162 41951201 42621208 43211216 44261228 45761266 46491216 47131120 47190884 47330839 47890804 48580735 49390682 49920641 99999999 28488368 29318346 30038305 30088242 29458204 28938166 28628104 28527968 99999999 48599050 47928984 47508884 47258709 47348543 47618448 99999999 27379651 28149738 28579773 31819803 35199733 35749649 36359535 36639517 36889529 37289588 37519654 37609714 37519746 37299784 36559876 34920124 34020208 33160231 32040228 29280184 28800197 99999999 37771922 37941981 38282026 38682052 39142070 39592056 39732015 39591963 39241917 38841872 38541841 38241830 37871843 37731897 37771922 && THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BBW 30 ESE ANW 25 WSW ONL 25 WSW OFK 30 ESE OFK 10 NNE TQE 15 SE DNS 35 SE DNS 35 ENE SDA 20 ESE SDA 15 NNW FNB 20 ESE BIE 40 N CNK 15 SE EAR 0 - BBW 30 NNW BBW 40 N BBW THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ERI 45 WNW ERI 20 WSW ERI 20 NE FKL 10 SW ABE 20 N EWR 30 N JFK 25 NNE JFK 20 SE JFK 30 E ACY 35 S ACY 30 SSE DOV 0 - DCA 35 SSW HLG 20 ENE MIE 35 SE BRL 0 - IRK 0 - FLV 10 WNW MHK 0 - RSL 30 SSE HLC 25 WSW HLC 30 WNW CDR 50 W RAP 35 SW 2WX 15 WNW 2WX 20 N 2WX 30 W Y22 45 WNW MBG 10 ENE MBG 25 SE HON 20 NNW FSD 25 WSW OTG 25 NW ALO 25 NNW AZO 40 ENE MTC THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ART 35 W GFL 0 - PSF 30 WSW BDL 45 SSE ISP ...CONT... 90 NNW MOT 50 SSW JMS 15 SW ATY 0 - FRM 0 - MKE 25 SSE MKG 65 NE MTC ...CONT... 45 E WAL 20 SSE NHK 20 WSW UNI 25 NW LUK 25 SW SLN 50 NNW P28 15 NNW GAG 50 ENE BGD 0 - BGD 10 W BGD 35 ESE DHT 35 SW EHA 25 NW LAA 35 WNW LIC 25 N FCL 20 W CYS 50 S SHR 50 SSE BIL 25 SSE BIL 60 N BIL 70 ENE LWT 40 WNW GGW 65 N GGW 90 N GGW THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TVF 45 NE BJI 25 N HIB 35 SSW ELO 10 NW DLH 40 NE STC 0 - AXN 45 S FAR 20 NW FAR 20 S TVF GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE WAL 35 SSE NHK 35 NNW RIC 20 SSW SHD 25 ENE SSU 15 NNE PSK 15 NNE AVL 65 NW AHN 15 S RMG 10 W ANB 40 S BHM 0 - SEM 30 S SEM 35 SW GZH 25 W PNS 80 SSW PNS ...CONT... 90 S DMN 35 SSW TCS 10 W TCS 15 SSW ONM 35 NE ONM 35 NNW 4CR 55 S LVS 40 WNW TCC 30 NNW TCC 35 SSW CAO 0 - CAO 25 NNW CAO 30 S LHX 10 W LHX 25 ENE PUB 0 - COS 35 SW DEN 35 ENE EGE 25 S CAG 15 ESE VEL 35 W VEL 40 S EVW 20 E OGD 20 SE MLD 35 NNE MLD 20 SSW IDA 20 S MQM 15 SSW BTM 10 SW HLN 25 SSE GTF 30 ENE LWT 55 ENE LWT 70 WSW GGW 40 NW GGW 80 N GGW 120 N GGW ...CONT... 70 WNW PIE 30 SW CTY 30 N CTY 30 NNW GNV 20 SE GNV 35 NW ORL 20 ENE ORL 65 ENE MLB ...CONT... 60 N GNA 25 ENE GNA 30 NW CMX 55 NNE MQT 80 NW ANJ 80 N ANJ ...CONT... 65 ESE CRP 25 SE NIR 15 NNW NIR 30 SSE SEP 20 SE OKC 20 E CQB 30 ENE TUL 25 W GMJ 35 WNW GMJ 35 NNE BVO 60 SSW EMP 15 ESE ICT 10 S ICT 35 SW ICT 15 SSW AVK 35 SE AMA 25 WSW PVW 45 SW LBB 10 NW MAF 55 SSE 6R6 75 WSW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW BIH 60 NE MER 45 SSW TVL 30 WSW TVL 40 WNW TVL 45 W RNO 25 NW RNO 10 NE RNO 30 SW NFL 45 S NFL 70 SSE NFL 60 N BIH 35 N BIH 40 NW BIH 55 WNW BIH