Day 2 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across Missouri into central Illinois, southeast Arizona, and northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. These storms may produce damaging wind gusts and marginal hail.
Product Text
000 ACUS02 KWNS 040557 SWODY2 SPC AC 040556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...MO...southern IA...central IL... A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes on Wednesday, with a weak surface trough roughly from northern MI southwestward into northern MO. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will exist from MO into IA and IL, supporting around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. This, combined with around 35 kt deep shear should support scattered strong to severe storms with mixed mode. Locally damaging wind gusts are most likely as storms congeal and produce outflow. A few of the initial cells may produce marginal hail. ...Northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles... Storms should form over the high terrain of northeast NM after 20Z with a modest northwest flow regime aloft. High pressure will exist over the central Plains, but surface winds will back to easterly and provide moisture into the region late in the day. Strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong wind gusts. ...Southeast AZ... Westerly surface winds with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints and daytime heating will support storms over the eastern Mogollon Rim / White Mtns, with some west/southwest propagation possible. MUCAPE should rise to at least 1500 J/kg, with PWAT near 1.25" supporting locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/04/2026 $$