Mesoscale Discussion 2343
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
A cluster of thunderstorms moving through north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma may produce brief tornadoes or damaging winds through the early morning hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 010422 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010421 OKZ000-TXZ000-010615- Mesoscale Discussion 2343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010421Z - 010615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over north-central TX will track north-northeastward into southern OK. Increasing shear profiles could lead to a brief tornado or two. The overall threat appears limited, and a watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is currently affecting Wise/Montague counties of north-central TX. The VAD profile at FWS has shown recent acceleration of low-level winds, with 1km AGL winds over 40 knots and 0-1km SRH over 300 m2/s2. Recent radar trends have shown a few weak low/mid-level circulations in the cluster of storms, evidence of the enhanced shear profiles. Given the influx of moist and marginally unstable air (dewpoints in the low 70s and MLCAPE ~800 J/kg), there is some potential for a brief tornado or two or locally damaging winds in this cluster for the next couple of hours. Given relatively low confidence and the small area of concern, a watch is not currently anticipated. ..Hart.. 10/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33489792 34169735 35029680 35029627 34709608 33799668 33459727 33229786 33349801 33489792 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH