Day 2 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tomorrow across parts of the central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast. The primary threat is severe wind gusts, though isolated hail or tornadoes are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Product Text
000 ACUS02 KWNS 241711 SWODY2 SPC AC 241709 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will dominate most of the CONUS as an upper trough over the Northeast ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple embedded impulses are expected to pivot around the upper ridge over the central U.S., encouraging surface troughing over the Plains states. Low-level moisture advection beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft, along with modest forcing for ascent with the surface trough, will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm development across portions of the High Plains to the Upper MS Valley. ...Portions of the central Plains... Upslope flow of low-level moisture toward the higher terrain/immediate lee of the Rockies will encourage thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon across the central High Plains. A deep and relatively dry boundary layer will develop through the day, with high-based pulse cellular and multicellular storms expected (given relatively poor tropospheric vertical shear). Lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb will reach the 8-9 C/km range, with robust updrafts likely. These storms will quickly become outflow dominant, leading to the cold-pool merger and the subsequent organization of one or more loosely organized MCSs. Given steep boundary layer lapse rates, efficient evaporative cooling will promote the potential of severe gusts with the more organized storm clusters, from far southern NE to the TX Panhandle. ...Parts of the Upper MS Valley... By late afternoon, thunderstorms are poised to develop immediately ahead of a surface trough as a 500 mb impulse and associated wind maximum overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Surface dewpoints should reach the low to mid 60s F, but will be overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km), yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast hodographs are elongated, with some low-level curvature noted. Supercells are expected to be the main storm mode, accompanied by a sparse risk of all severe convective hazards. ...Eastern parts of the Gulf Coast... Pulse cellular storms will develop along the Gulf Coast again tomorrow, where mid 70s F surface dewpoints will yield enough buoyancy to support strong thunderstorms. MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg over several locales, with PWATS well over 2 inches expected. As such, water-loaded downdrafts will promote wet microbursts capable of producing wind damage. ..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026 $$