Mesoscale Discussion 2300
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next one to two hours across the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas, bringing the potential for sporadic wind gusts of up to 65 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 151900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151859 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-152100- Mesoscale Discussion 2300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Areas affected...TX Panhandle into central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151859Z - 152100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage increasing over next 1-2 hours. Sporadic strong gusts are possible, with some locally greater risk for a couple of gusts to 50-65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into south-central/east-central Kansas. Overall risk appears limited, and a watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the next 1-2 hours, first across portions of northwest OK into central KS, and later this afternoon with southwest extent into the TX Panhandle. Convective initiation is most imminent across south-central KS where deepening cumulus and recent lightning activity is noted. This activity is developing within a modestly unstable boundary layer in the vicinity of a pre-frontal trough/remnant outflow. This area is on the southern fringe of stronger effective shear focused near/north of a surface cold front oriented across northern/central KS into the northern TX Panhandle. This could provide sufficient support transient organized cells and multicells. Areas of strong heating have allowed temperatures to warm into the 90s, supporting very steep low-level lapse rates. While the thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space is expected to remain modest, the well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong wind gusts. Overall severe potential appears limited/transient and a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34500252 34710258 35030239 35570183 36500082 37729920 38479741 38749652 38679612 38439594 38189591 37879602 37599635 36889769 35589973 34220109 33940165 33910219 34240239 34500252 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN