Mesoscale Discussion 2292
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Increasingly intense storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail across northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York through the early evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 131959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131959 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-132200- Mesoscale Discussion 2292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131959Z - 132200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity over the new few hours along the cold front from northeast Ohio into parts of western/central New York. Trends will continue to be monitored for watch potential. DISCUSSION...Height falls with the upper trough are now spreading across MI and approaching the Lower Great Lakes. Gradual destabilization is underway ahead of the cold front, which extends roughly from western NY into OH. Deepening CU and convective showers are also evident over north-central OH and into northwest PA, and farther northeast along the lake breezes into NY. Given continued heating, lift along the front and at least some cooling aloft, storm coverage and intensity should increase along the effective front over the next several hours. The 18Z PIT sounding shows 40 kt midlevel winds along with stronger speeds in the upper levels, although speeds below 700 mb are generally weak. However, overall wind profiles may increase later today, supporting at least some threat of storm organization. Effective deep-layer shear around 40-45 kt may support cellular storm mode at times, along with smaller-scale bowing structures/line segments as well. Marginal hail and locally strong to damaging gusts may occur through early evening. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40717982 40308081 40158164 40308193 40548204 40888198 41078170 41818010 42307912 42577863 42827850 43057856 43217845 43277826 43417553 43167525 42697556 41687732 41057881 40717982 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN