Day 3 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is limited across the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, with only a slight chance of isolated high-based convection in eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 230631 SWODY3 SPC AC 230630 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited on Saturday. ...Northern High Plains to Upper Midwest... An amplified upper ridge will remain centered over the High Plains on Saturday. Moderately enhanced west to northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the region near the crest of the ridge and into the Upper MS Valley. Forecast guidance depicts one or more shortwave impulses rounding the ridge from eastern MT into the Dakotas, and possibly parts of the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings indicate capping across the Upper Midwest, which may limit thunderstorm potential despite a moistening boundary layer with time. Further west across eastern MT into the western Dakotas, low-level moisture will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak destabilization as strong heating occurs during the day. Deep boundary layer mixing is forecast, and isolated to scattered high-based convection could develop within the weakly unstable airmass. Some potential for strong gusts will accompany this activity, but it is unclear if sufficient instability and moisture will exist to support severe wind gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/23/2026 $$