Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated large hail may also occur over south-central Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles during the same period.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 100538 SWODY1 SPC AC 100536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough initially over the upper MS and mid MO Valleys Thursday morning will continue east into the Great Lakes and OH Valley with a preceding belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum (possible MCV) is forecast to progress from western KS into the Ozark Plateau by Thursday night. At the surface, a cool front is expected to advance through the Mid-Atlantic during the forecast period with the western extension of the boundary settling more slowly south through the OH Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. The location of the surface front is likely to be modulated by clusters of thunderstorms that are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from portions of the OH Valley into the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast... To the south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers and thunderstorms, a hot air mass is expected to develop by afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level lapse rates will remain generally less than 7 C/km, the daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500+ J/kg. The 00Z models indicate a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level disturbances mentioned in the synopsis, as well as convergence along the synoptic front and any existing outflow boundaries. The strongest mid/upper-level wind field and resultant vertical shear are expected to largely remain to the north of the effective warm sector. However, 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast along the front over portions of the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where some storm organization appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear will diminish with southwestward extent from the TN Valley into the OK-TX Red River Valley; however, the presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The given environment will be supportive of multicell and supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail. ..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/10/2026 $$