Mesoscale Discussion 1991
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph may develop across southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west-central Illinois late this afternoon into the evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 152102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152102 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-152300- Mesoscale Discussion 1991 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Areas affected...south-central and southeast IA...north-central and northeast Missouri...and west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152102Z - 152300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe weather may increase across the area late this afternoon into evening. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed along the IA-MO border, near Centerville, IA along a residual outflow boundary that extends into west-central IL. A very moist boundary-layer exists in the vicinity of the surface front with dewpoints into the mid 70s to lower 80s, which are contributing to MLCAPE of 3000-3500+ J/kg, per latest objective analysis. Forcing associated with a remnant MCV may be contributing to the storm development with the current EAX VWP indicating 30-35 kt of westerly flow in the mid levels, suggestive of at least modest vertical shear. As such, some potential for isolated severe weather appears to exist, mainly in the form of locally damaging wind gusts, should sustained storms persist late this afternoon into evening. ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40419332 41019328 41159192 40829093 40359086 39969106 39899165 40189293 40419332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN