Mesoscale Discussion 1984
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered thunderstorms bringing isolated hail and sporadic damaging wind gusts are expected tonight across portions of northeast Kansas, northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and western Illinois. The severity is expected to be low, with possible wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to 1.75 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 150443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150442 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150645- Mesoscale Discussion 1984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas...northern Missouri into southern Iowa and western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 150442Z - 150645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage this evening across the eastern MO and Mid MS Valleys. Isolated hail is the most likely hazard, though sporadic damaging gusts are also possible. The lack of a more organized severe risk suggests a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar imagery showed scattered storms had developed and intensified along a stationary frontal zone from northern KS/MO into southern IA and western IL. Forcing for ascent has steadily increased this evening as a 30-40 kt low-level jet is developing and focusing low-level warm advection along the front. Lingering warm surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 70s F south of the front are supporting moderate to large buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE) despite modest mid-level lapse rate profiles. With continued forcing along the frontal axis, storm coverage is expected to increase through the overnight hours. Area VADs show low-level shear has increased along with the aforementioned low-level jet. Much of this shear is concentrated in the lowest 3km, with deep-layer shear comparatively limited due to weak flow aloft around 20 kt. This could support some supercell structures, though the weaker deep-layer shear casts some uncertainty on the longevity of storm organization. Still, the large buoyancy could support some risk for hail. Additionally, any clustering could allow for strong to severe gusts. However, this should become less likely with time as the boundary layer stabilizes overnight. CAM guidance shows storms increasing in coverage and gradually shifting eastward along the front through the night. Some runs do show more clustering which could support a greater localized risk, though this is uncertain as the trend should be for storms to become elevated. Thus, while some severe risk is possible over the next few hours, the lack of a more focused and organized severe risk suggests a WW is currently unlikely. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38909583 39029227 39608986 40178936 40608945 40778994 40869172 40169619 40139626 39809654 39399645 39209624 38909583 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN