Mesoscale Discussion 1719
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Sparse and short-lived severe hail may occur in portions of north-central and northeastern Kansas over the next two hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 240358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240358 KSZ000-240500- Mesoscale Discussion 1719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Areas affected...portions of north-central into northeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240358Z - 240500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail may accompany one of the stronger storms over the next couple of hours. However, any severe threat that manages to materialize should remain sparse and short lived. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually intensified along the terminus of a strengthening low-level jet, where 850 mb warm-air-advection and isentropic ascent are maximized. Latest MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that some of the stronger embedded cells may be producing hail approaching severe criteria. Nonetheless, as these storms progress eastward, they should zonally outpace the low-level jet axis and accompanying MUCAPE field (exceeding 500 J/kg). Therefore, the expectation is for the severe hail threat to remain sparse at best, as well as short lived. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39289897 39539800 39599639 39259531 38949507 38759525 38699585 38639643 38649711 38839806 39289897 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN