Day 2 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Marginal severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and isolated hail are possible on Thursday across parts of the Great Plains and the Northeast. Affected areas include central South Dakota into northwest Nebraska, southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, and portions of the Northeast from south-central New York through Pennsylvania and western Virginia.
Product Text
000 ACUS02 KWNS 050550 SWODY2 SPC AC 050548 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains, and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts. Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity. ...Central SD into northwest NE... A shortwave trough will move southeastward across SK/MB, with at least some influence extending southward across the northern Plains. A surface trough will develop southward into central SD and western NE, where strong heating will occur. A narrow band of uncapped instability is forecast, with several models indicating scattered storms late in the day. Southerly 850 mb winds over 20 kt will aid/maintain moisture into the area, and forecast soundings show marginally favorable hodographs for supercells. Localized hail may occur initially, with some clustering and wind potential into the early evening. ...Southern KS into northwest OK... A surface trough/wind shift is forecast to exist from southern KS into northern OK, with southerly winds and strong heating to the south. Near/north of the boundary, winds will remain southeasterly with higher dewpoints. General model consensus is for the deeply mixed boundary layer to support an uncapped air mass, with a zone of storms developing. These will likely produce strong outflow, and a few severe gusts may occur. ...Northeast... Southwest winds aloft will persist over the region as an upper high remains over the Atlantic and a shortwave trough approaches the Lower Great Lakes by late afternoon. Height tendencies will remain neutral from NY into WV/VA during the day, but strong heating, PWAT near 2.00" and sufficient MUCAPE should aid scattered storm development near a weak surface trough after 19Z. This would include from south-central NY into central PA and across the higher terrain of western VA. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2026 $$