Mesoscale Discussion 0988

Issued: 2026-06-05 19:38 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-06-05 19:38 – 2026-06-05 21:15 UTC

Product Text

000 ACUS11 KWNS 051938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051938 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-052115- Mesoscale Discussion 0988 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051938Z - 052115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in the potential for damaging wind gusts is possible this afternoon as storms evolve eastward across northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan. Small to marginally severe hail also remains possible with any stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection just east of the WI/MN border has shown some signs of upscale growth into a bowing segment/cluster along an outflow boundary over the past hour. Additional thunderstorm development is also noted along an east-west oriented lake breeze inland of the southern shore of Lake Superior. While this convection has largely remained sub-severe through 1930 UTC, producing a report of pea sized hail and a measured gust of 48 mph, steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing buoyancy amid continued diurnal heating (per latest mesoanalysis) may support some increase in the potential for damaging wind gusts through this afternoon as this cluster progresses eastward. Small to marginally severe hail also remains possible with the most robust cores even though mid-level lapse rates weaken with eastward extent. Despite the increasing thunderstorm coverage and potential for an uptick in damaging wind potential, weak effective shear (20-25 kts or less) is expected to largely temper storm organization and severity. Thus, watch issuance remains unlikely at this time. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46569220 46818967 46878812 46688715 46408660 45868646 45398669 44778723 44568768 44388816 44338917 44349047 44559184 44719257 44969289 45289308 45659309 46169277 46569220 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN