Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-07-22 07:28 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-07-25 12:00 – 2026-07-30 12:00 UTC

Summary

Daily severe thunderstorm chances are possible from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley and potentially the Mid-Atlantic starting Saturday through early next week. The exact timing and location of these storms remain uncertain.

Product Text

000 ACUS48 KWNS 220728 SWOD48 SPC AC 220726 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026