Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Issued: 2026-10-01 12:55 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-10-01 13:00 – 2026-10-02 12:00 UTC

Summary

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail may occur across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas through the afternoon. Overall severe weather potential remains low.

Product Text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 011255 SWODY1 SPC AC 011253 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential is low today, but some strong storms with gusty winds could occur across parts of Kansas southward into central and southern Texas. ...Southern/central/northeast Texas to southeast Oklahoma... Extensive convection stretches from eastern Oklahoma into north Texas and southwestward into the Texas Hill County and Edwards Plateau, with a few stronger convective elements ongoing. This general theme will continue with a gradual net eastward shift of semi-continuous precipitation through the day, supported by low-level warm advection ahead of a surface low and cold front. Ongoing convection and preceding cloud cover across the warm sector will limit heating/destabilization with lapse rates remaining poor, while low-level winds are expected to steadily weaken during the day. While occasional gusty winds could accompany thunderstorms today, the overall severe potential should remain low, with repetitive/locally heavy rainfall the main concern. ...Southern Kansas/Texas Panhandle and western/northern Oklahoma... In closer proximity to the mid-level low, locally stronger heating may occur coincident with cloud breaks in vicinity of a weakening surface wave and the south/southeastward-spreading front and westward-extending surface trough. Sufficient heating/destabilization could allow for some stronger updrafts into this afternoon, although deep-layer winds will be weakening over time. Aside from some possibility for a few stronger storms with gusty winds/small hail, there may be some funnel potential in vicinity of the aforementioned boundaries given sufficient low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity. That said, mid-level temperatures/lapse rates are not optimal and the cold front will become more southward progressive later in the day, lessening any such potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 10/01/2026 $$