Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-07-02 12:45 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms, including risks of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, are expected across parts of the central and southern United States on Thursday, July 2. An enhanced risk of severe weather is focused on areas near the border of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, while slight to marginal risks extend through much of the eastern and central U.S.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 021245 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026 VALID TIME 021300Z - 031200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 49700267 49350239 48070095 47359994 46679822 46089652 45049380 44029195 43379094 42919012 42518995 41889119 41859349 42009536 42139735 42319995 43280301 44530388 46410480 49780470 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 47826943 44717050 43937534 42387898 41878428 41238923 40609412 40249747 39069962 38359998 36780071 36690078 36530156 37120197 37650238 38210245 38970258 39660282 42040381 42920525 44520688 45720835 46620850 47560752 48440617 49660536 99999999 49799965 48039774 47269652 46349202 46398994 46298705 46218304 0.05 34618180 33728295 32948539 33338761 34468931 35688996 37158915 38018779 36978423 36488275 35578171 34618180 0.15 49530167 48750144 47819984 46509722 45909657 45129611 44389609 43449639 42959640 42399696 42079751 42269967 42860187 43440356 44020398 44890430 46300434 49570466 CIG1 49930278 49070180 47960067 46339951 44819771 44219622 43939436 43879059 43329049 42969077 42859410 42679548 42049765 42250035 43420343 44250414 46340477 50130465 49930278 && ... WIND ... 0.05 46106705 44646898 43967053 43657172 42777516 42577686 41188198 41158944 40669386 40189750 39039962 36750068 36590153 36900191 37600234 38740252 40580317 42170392 42800498 45630827 46610852 47520760 48430624 49660541 99999999 49779956 47929763 47439624 46359191 46318719 46228297 0.05 34859049 36219025 37578989 38228884 38438544 38018468 36918397 36058104 35768074 35438074 34598152 33898229 33258348 32668548 32718647 32668801 32938877 33618981 34289017 34859049 0.15 49650264 49060206 48040031 47489883 46869625 46219319 44868903 44598668 44468595 44128550 43558570 43158602 42428793 41739242 41319446 41299673 41529808 41949961 42130018 42680147 43240241 44400382 46170470 48640460 49520464 0.15 36638850 37148734 36218309 35358223 34478265 33698373 33428509 34038897 34858943 35678945 36638850 0.30 46110093 46800027 46759873 46369661 45299465 44349454 43829459 43069501 42779629 42969763 43569873 45120041 46110093 0.30 34258497 34388714 34698833 35098860 35738851 36318807 36678699 36128494 35298438 34598457 34258497 CIG1 42810206 43480263 44830328 46430266 47560090 47619912 46499653 44249300 43569253 42919263 42419316 41889501 41759857 42040020 42810206 CIG1 37320196 38450219 39400241 39980192 39950102 38890060 37840070 37260100 37050130 37320196 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... ENH 46800027 46759873 46369661 45299465 44349454 43829459 43069501 42779629 42969763 43569873 45120041 46110093 46800027 SLGT 36638850 37148734 36218309 35358223 34478265 33698373 33428509 34038897 34858943 35678945 36638850 SLGT 49490166 48750144 47960009 47489883 46219319 44868903 44468595 44128550 43558570 43158602 42428793 41739242 41319446 41299673 41529808 41949961 42810169 43440356 44020398 44890430 45390431 46170470 49230463 MRGL 36219025 37578989 38228884 38438544 38018468 36918397 36058104 35768074 35438074 33898229 33258348 32668548 32718647 32668801 32938877 33618981 34859049 36219025 MRGL 49489926 48039774 47879748 47439624 46359191 46398994 46228302 99999999 45996719 44646898 43967053 42777516 42577686 41188198 41158944 40189750 39039962 36750068 36530156 36900191 37650238 38850256 40060299 42080388 42920525 43830617 45720835 46610852 47520760 48430624 49470554 TSTM 36337523 36627628 37217628 37567599 37887545 38147507 38257458 99999999 31440691 32560666 33590631 34150579 34650514 35220422 35710375 36220365 36640368 37020380 39750446 41590494 42160540 42430582 42550632 42490707 42130795 41380858 40450961 39741139 39001384 38781521 39121609 39811647 40331668 41161642 42321572 43321440 43971357 44461330 44951315 45361310 45811306 46341274 46751240 47091190 47681102 48261076 48681087 49311125 49641153 99999999 39727353 41007482 41497625 40997937 40438211 40138314 39608360 39228342 38408196 37918090 37137961 36487914 35597906 35007947 34438017 33758110 33018265 32418417 31968486 31458521 31198528 30808521 30508501 30418441 30508376 30898267 31568127 31918001 99999999 49149306 48109143 47459004 47148893 47088804 47138663 47488489 47828423 99999999 27820035 28229936 28399884 28959812 29929775 31189737 32019737 33199764 33459774 33429820 33179877 32739975 31980074 31540105 30670141 30140149 29490140 29070139 && THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E BIS 15 S JMS 40 SSE FAR 35 WSW STC 30 ESE RWF 15 NW FRM 10 SE SPW 25 N SUX 15 WNW YKN 35 ESE 9V9 30 S MBG 45 S BIS 25 E BIS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE PAH 35 NNE HOP 25 NW HSS 20 ESE AVL 0 - AND 30 SW AHN 30 N LGC 20 SW TUP 35 N UOX 25 S DYR 35 SSE PAH THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW MOT 35 NNW MOT 55 W DVL 40 N JMS 45 ESE BRD 30 E AUW 20 NE MBL 40 S TVC 35 NE MKG 10 E MKG 25 SSW RAC 45 N OTM 45 WSW DSM 30 N LNK 40 NNE GRI 25 WNW BUB 60 NNW MHN 50 NNW CDR 45 W RAP 60 SW 2WX 40 WSW 2WX 25 WSW BHK 85 NNW ISN THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE JBR 30 NW CGI 0 - MVN 25 NE SDF 0 - LEX 15 SSE LOZ 30 NE HKY 40 NNE CLT 20 NE CLT 40 NNW AGS 40 NNE MCN 0 - AUO 30 N MGM 45 SSW TCL 40 N MEI 15 ENE GWO 30 WSW MEM 35 NE JBR THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 N DVL 25 WNW GFK 15 WSW GFK 45 S TVF 35 SSE DLH 15 SE IWD 85 NNE APN ...CONT... 30 ESE HUL 15 SSW BGR 25 NNW PWM 30 SSE UCA 30 N ELM 20 SSW CLE 35 NNE PIA 45 N CNK 25 SSE HLC 25 SE LBL 10 SSW GUY 0 - EHA 30 NNE SPD 30 SSW ITR 15 SE AKO 15 E TOR 15 NNE DGW 50 SW GCC 10 ESE BIL 55 N BIL 65 SW GGW 25 NE GGW 95 N OLF GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E ECG 20 SSW ORF 20 NNW ORF 40 SW WAL 0 - WAL 25 NE WAL 50 E SBY ...CONT... 40 SW ELP 40 WSW ALM 45 SE ONM 0 - 4CR 50 NE 4CR 35 W TCC 40 NNW TCC 30 WSW CAO 30 WNW CAO 35 ESE TAD 20 E DEN 30 NNW CYS 40 S DGW 30 SW DGW 25 SSE CPR 50 N RWL 45 WNW RWL 30 ESE RKS 0 - VEL 35 WNW PUC 60 NW MLF 40 SSW ELY 30 SSW P68 35 NW P68 20 SSE BAM 45 NNE BAM 35 NE OWY 15 SSW SUN 50 NE SUN 55 SSE SMN 35 SW DLN 30 WNW DLN 30 WSW BTM 30 NNW BTM 20 WNW HLN 35 N HLN 20 NE GTF 60 NNE GTF 50 W HVR 70 NE CTB 80 NNE CTB ...CONT... 50 ESE NEL 50 S MSV 30 WNW AVP 30 WSW DUJ 35 NNW ZZV 15 WNW CMH 40 ESE DAY 60 SSW CMH 20 W CRW 15 NE BKW 25 ESE ROA 10 ESE DAN 25 SW RDU 15 SSW SOP 30 NW FLO 10 S CAE 45 WSW AGS 35 WSW MCN 40 S CSG 15 ENE DHN 15 SE DHN 0 - MAI 25 SSE MAI 0 - TLH 35 SW VLD 30 SSW AYS 30 NNE SSI 70 S CHS ...CONT... 40 NNE INL 25 NE ELO 25 SE GNA 20 W CMX 20 ESE CMX 60 NE MQT 75 NNW ANJ 95 N ANJ ...CONT... 55 WNW LRD 20 SSW COT 25 E COT 45 SSE SAT 20 NE BAZ 0 - TPL 30 NNW ACT 30 NNW FTW 50 NNW FTW 40 SSE SPS 50 NW MWL 20 N ABI 45 NNW SJT 35 WNW SJT 65 NE 6R6 45 E 6R6 30 WNW DRT 35 SW DRT