Mesoscale Discussion 1522
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible this afternoon across eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and northeast South Dakota.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 061812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061811 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062015- Mesoscale Discussion 1522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northwest Minnesota...northeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 061811Z - 062015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds are possible with initial supercells that will eventually grow upscale into a more organized cluster/MCS. A watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front continues southeastward within the northern Plains. Though influence from the shortwave trough in Canada is minimal, areas of strong heating of and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoint airmass is allowing cumulus to deepen along parts of the boundary. Additionally, mid-level convection will move eastward through the Dakotas and may gradually root near the surface. The strongest initial development will likely occur along the Canadian border in northwest Minnesota given the greater surface heating and nominally greater mid-level ascent. Effective shear of 35-40 kt will support a mixture of supercells and multicells. With time, linear forcing along the cold front and cold pool mergers will lead to a broader linear structure. Initial supercells would be capable of large hail up to 2 inches. As activity congeals, severe wind gusts/wind damage would become more likely. The environment into the Mississippi Valley becomes less favorable. Movement of storms toward the south/southeast into the greater buoyancy is expected with time. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45739785 46109810 48279763 49079707 49179637 48959581 46519627 45859646 45659673 45739785 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN