Mesoscale Discussion 1184
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds are expected to move through central and eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and the western Carolinas this afternoon. These storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 181743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181743 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-181845- Mesoscale Discussion 1184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Areas affected...central/eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and the western Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181743Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to re-intensify this afternoon with potential for damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues across portions of central/eastern Kentucky into the Carolinas this afternoon. This is ongoing in the vicinity of a differential heating zone/residual outflow from morning storm activity. Daytime heating across this zone has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee, with around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE analyzed in SPC Mesoanalysis. Westerly deep layer flow continues to support around 30-40 kts of boundary shear to support organization. The parallel orientation of this shear to the boundary will likely support clustering of storms and multi-cell modes. Coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase this afternoon, with potential for several clusters spreading eastward through the afternoon. The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37617939 37708033 37798192 37638508 37408598 36728600 36198566 36398354 36198140 36278063 36577926 36957898 37577909 37617939 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN