Mesoscale Discussion 2009
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph are possible across southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky through the early morning hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 170714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170713 KYZ000-INZ000-170915- Mesoscale Discussion 2009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Areas affected...Southern IN into parts of northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170713Z - 170915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind is possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A small MCS has recently shown some signs of increased intensity and organization as it approaches northwest KY early this morning. While lapse rates are generally weak, rich moisture (with PW near/above 2 inches) is helping to maintain moderate buoyancy in advance of this system, with sufficient deep-layer flow for some storm organization. The generally unidirectional westerly flow above the surface (with some increase in 1-3 km AGL flow noted in regional VWPs) will continue to be favorable for an eastward-moving MCS through the early morning hours. The poor low-level lapse rates may continue to mitigate the severe-wind threat to some extent, though a severe gust was recently observed within a separate area of convection across southern IN. At least isolated wind-damage potential is expected to spread eastward through the early morning, especially near/south of an outflow boundary near the IN/KY border, where warmer surface temperatures remain in place. Eventually, decreasing buoyancy and increasing inhibition with time and eastward extent is expected to lead to a weakening trend ..Dean/Mosier.. 08/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 38448728 38468605 38458525 38078512 37788523 37588542 37428559 37408606 37518698 37648770 37888750 38028733 38448728 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH