Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains this evening. Severe wind gusts are also possible in the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and southeast Arizona.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 100059 SWODY1 SPC AC 100057 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and Arizona. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1005 mb low is located over far southwest Kansas with a trough extending northward across western Kansas and western Nebraska. An axis of low-level convergence is analyzed across eastern Colorado and far western Nebraska, along which a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing. Ahead of this line, the RAP has moderate instability in place over much of the central Plains. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs at Goodland and Dodge City have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This will be favorable for a severe threat as the line moves eastward across western Kansas and western Nebraska this evening. Severe wind gusts will be concentrated along the more intense parts of the line, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells within the line itself...see MCD 1564. The line is expected to remain organized as it moves into central and southern Kansas during the mid to late evening, where instability is locally stronger. Further north into the northern Plains, a cold front is located from northwest South Dakota northeastward into north-central North Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid to upper 60s F, and the RAP has a pocket of strong instability with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A cluster of severe storms is ongoing just to the northeast of the instability max within an area of strong low-level convergence. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in central North Dakota have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, which will support supercell development with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts...see MCD 1565. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cores. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A very moist airmass is in place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid to upper 70s F. Near the highest dewpoints, the RAP shows an axis of strong instability located from northeast Arkansas into western Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing near the instability axis, and should persist for a few more hours. This line will have potential for severe wind gusts. Additional storms with wind-damage potential will be possible over the lower Ohio Valley and in the Ozarks. ...Southeast Arizona... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across far southeast Arizona, along an axis of low-level convergence. Near this axis, surface dewpoints are from the mid 40s to mid 50s F, and low-level lapse are very steep. This could support isolated severe gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2026 $$