Mesoscale Discussion 1713
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible across northeast Colorado this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 222344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222343 COZ000-230145- Mesoscale Discussion 1713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Areas affected...northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222343Z - 230145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe wind gusts is expected to increase across the discussion area this evening. The areal coverage of the threat is expected to remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually increasing in areal coverage across portions of Lincoln and Kit Carson Counties, to the north of a stalled front. The storms are developing within the western edge of a more moist and unstable boundary layer (i.e., MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg), and within a zone of stronger east to southeast surface winds. Aided by a gust front approaching from the west, latest CAM guidance suggests the potential for upscale growth into a loosely organized complex or line by 01-02Z. The current KGLD VWP is sampling a 1-km deep layer of southeast winds, which will enhance storm-relative inflow into the developing storms. When coupled with steep low/mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer temperature-dewpoint spreads of 30+ degrees, the setup appears supportive of a few severe wind gusts this evening. ..Mead/Mosier.. 07/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39160355 39870376 40620387 40970359 40870269 39790245 39030262 38870309 39160355 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH