Mesoscale Discussion 1956
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado, and the Nebraska Panhandle this evening, bringing a threat of severe wind gusts and large hail. These storms will evolve eastward through the evening with the potential for significant wind and very large hail.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 121933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121933 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-122130- Mesoscale Discussion 1956 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 121933Z - 122130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered, initially high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the Front Range over the next couple of hours. These storms will evolve eastward through this evening, bringing a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a mid-level perturbation and along/ahead of a surface stationary/cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the Front Range from southeastern Wyoming into northern Colorado over the next 1-2 hours. Storms will be initially high-based given hot temperatures and well-mixed boundary layer profiles (low-90s F temperatures amid dewpoints in the mid-40s) ahead of the aforementioned surface boundary. While effective shear around 35-40 kts will be sufficient for supercell structures, high cloud bases (LCLs of 2+ km AGL) and steep low-level lapse rates will favor efficient evaporative cooling, downdraft formation, and upscale growth/clustering as convection evolves eastward. Severe wind gusts (a few significant) will be the main threat with this activity, but large to very large hail is also expected, especially early in the convective cycle and with any convection that is able to maintain a discrete mode. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for at least a portion of the discussion area in the next 1-2 hours to cover these threats. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 08/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39980444 40550467 41750481 42560476 42960439 43050376 43050296 42820258 42080220 41200211 40260211 39670219 39380251 39180335 39300381 39500414 39980444 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN