Mesoscale Discussion 1825
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated damaging winds and brief tornadoes may occur across New Jersey, southeast New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts through the early morning hours of August 3. These storms are expected to be limited in severity, with potential wind gusts up to 60 mph and tornado speeds up to 90 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 030728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030728 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-030930- Mesoscale Discussion 1825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026 Areas affected...New Jersey into southeast New York and Connecticut and into Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030728Z - 030930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind/brief tornado threat will exist through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...A recent uptick in convective intensity (including increasing lightning) has been observed with storms from New Jersey into Connecticut over the past 30 to 45 minutes. These storms are aided by broad isentropic ascent (40 knot low-level jet sampled by the OKX VWP) and weak height falls. This strong low-level jet, combined with backed low-level southeasterly flow ahead of a deepening surface low across central New York has resulted in relatively strong low-level shear. In addition, mid to upper 70s dewpoints are in place, resulting in a very moist low-level air mass and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg (per SPC HRRR-based mesoanalysis). Storm mode is messy, due to a combination of storm mergers and a very moist air mass (2.31 PWAT per IAD 00Z RAOB). These lapse rates and the messy storm mode should preclude the need for a watch. However, the very moist low-level air mass and moderately strong low-level shear could result in isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley/Smith.. 08/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... LAT...LON 39467423 39947493 40237522 41447394 41827344 42327229 42497139 42387096 41907106 41157179 41017188 40537342 40497379 39797397 39467423 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH