Mesoscale Discussion 2125
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph are possible this afternoon across portions of the northern Florida peninsula and the lower Savannah River Valley.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 251614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251614 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-251845- Mesoscale Discussion 2125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Florida into the lower Savannah River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251614Z - 251845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts appear possible with the most intense storms this afternoon. A watch is unlikely due to the limited areal extent of the threat. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows thunderstorms gradually increasing in coverage across portions of the northern FL Peninsula and south-central GA, to the south of a quasi-stationary front draped across the region. Modification of the 12Z Jacksonville, FL, sounding for current surface conditions yields a strongly unstable air mass with MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear will remain weak across the region, the degree of instability will support intense updrafts and subsequent, water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30028196 30028304 30668342 32248183 32788100 32458033 31288116 30568138 30228138 30028196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH