Mesoscale Discussion 1827
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Sporadic strong wind gusts and possible weak, brief tornadoes may occur across portions of New England through this afternoon. The overall severe weather risk is expected to remain limited.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 031613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031613 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-031815- Mesoscale Discussion 1827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026 Areas affected...portions of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031613Z - 031815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts, and possibly a weak/brief tornado, are possible through the afternoon. The overall risk is expected to remain limited, and a watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage/intensity ahead of a surface cold near the NY/VT border early this afternoon. Broken clouds have muted stronger heating, but temperatures have risen modestly into the mid 70s to near 80 F amid a very moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints). This is resulting in a corridor of weak destabilization across portions of New England, with continued destabilization expected through the afternoon with eastward extent toward western ME. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft is aiding in effective shear magnitudes greater than 45 kt across the region, with will allow for transient storm organization despite weak instability. Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon as the surface front gradually pushes eastward. Where pockets of stronger heating occur and where backed surface flow is maintained, a brief/weak spin-up also is possible. However, given weak instability and poor lapse rate environment, the overall severe risk should remain limited, and a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 44997322 45457160 45347063 44787023 43767015 42657105 41987217 41957276 42177333 42497367 42947387 44997322 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH