Mesoscale Discussion 1710
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected to develop across portions of southeast Texas within the next one to two hours. These storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 222014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222013 LAZ000-TXZ000-222215- Mesoscale Discussion 1710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222013Z - 222215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across southeast Texas over the next 1-2 hours, with southwestward-moving storms bringing a threat for damaging/severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate that temperatures have warmed to near 100 F amid dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s F across southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Satellite imagery depicts a deepening cumulus field along a weak confluence zone with recent lightning activity noted. While mid-level lapse rates remain poor, hot and humid conditions are supporting strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg sampled by the 18z LCH observed sounding), and further heating will support thunderstorm development within this environment over the next 1-2 hours. Deep-layer northeasterly flow and enhanced effective shear along the western periphery of Tropical Storm Bertha will favor a cluster or two of southwestward propagating thunderstorms, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles (observed dewpoint depressions of around 25 F), very high PW (2.55 inches sampled by the LCH sounding), and enhanced mid-level flow (35-45+ kts sampled at 3-4 km AGL by the LCH/POE VAD profiles) supporting a risk for damaging/severe wind gusts. Consideration may be given to a targeted Severe Thunderstorm Watch pending the development of a stronger cluster or two. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 31339419 31219402 30949381 30599368 30309370 30039371 29599387 29319455 28929513 28579571 28519603 28569648 28789670 29309685 29959682 30679644 31069608 31359556 31449515 31449465 31339419 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH