Day 3 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-07-29 19:28 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-07-31 12:00 – 2026-08-01 12:00 UTC

Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, brief tornadoes, or damaging winds are possible across central Iowa, much of Missouri, northern Arkansas, and parts of the central High Plains this Friday afternoon and evening.

Product Text

000 ACUS03 KWNS 291928 SWODY3 SPC AC 291927 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward into the Ozarks, and over the central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/AR... A shortwave trough is forecast to develop out of the northern Plains and move southeastward toward the mid MS Valley Friday, with increasing midlevel northwesterlies to over 40 kt. At the surface, low pressure should develop from southern IA into northern MO during the day, moving into western IL by 12Z Saturday. Upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will be common ahead of an associated cold front which will extend roughly across southern IA and into central MO during the peak heating hours. While midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg is still forecast. Further, winds will veer with height, resulting in semi-favorable hodographs for supercells with deep layer shear over 30 kt. Early day rain appears likely from southern MN into IA and MO as the initial warm/moist advection occurs, with diurnal storms expected along the front during the late afternoon. The stronger storms may produce hail, a brief tornado, or damaging wind gusts. Placement of such a narrow north/south risk area has inherent uncertainties this far out, but a corridor of greater severe probabilities could be required in later outlooks as predictability increases. ...Eastern CO/NM... Northwest flow aloft on the order of 20-30 kt will exist over the High Plains on the backside of the shortwave trough to the northeast. Surface winds will veer to east/northeasterly by late afternoon as peak heating is attained. Dewpoints into the 50s F, steep low-level lapse rates and modest northwest flow aloft should yield a few cells capable of marginally severe hail or wind. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2026 $$