Mesoscale Discussion 1838
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Some storms across portions of southern Arizona may produce severe wind gusts this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 052315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052315 AZZ000-060115- Mesoscale Discussion 1838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026 Areas affected...Portions of southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052315Z - 060115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may produce severe gusts across portions of southern Arizona this evening. A watch is not anticipated, though trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Terrain-induced thunderstorms are ongoing near the Mogollon Rim, and new convection is beginning to develop on the smaller mountain ranges of southern Arizona near and just south of a large upper ridge. The environment for these storms is characterized by strong buoyancy (2000+ J/kg per mesoanalysis), steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry boundary layer. Due to the proximity to the ridge, deep-layer flow is generally weak, though some modest easterly shear is present near the international border. Due to the steep low-level lapse rates and dry boundary layer, a few severe gusts may occur with this activity. Additionally, the modest shear over the southern part of the region may promote loose organization of the convection as time progresses, and this clustering may provide the greatest (though still relatively modest) risk for severe gust. Some additional development is possible in the next few hours, though activity is expected to wane throughout the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Due to the expected sparse coverage of severe gusts, a watch is not currently anticipated, though trends will be monitored. ..Supinie/Hart.. 08/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31211020 31271101 31831286 32931296 34441214 34881126 34821072 34160977 33790955 33020923 31730926 31230946 31211020 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN