Mesoscale Discussion 2280
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe wind and small to marginally severe hail are possible through the evening across far southeast Colorado, eastern New Mexico, and the Texas Panhandle. Expected wind gusts may reach 55 to 70 mph, while hail could be between 1.00 and 1.75 inches in size.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 102242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102241 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-110045- Mesoscale Discussion 2280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Areas affected...far southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102241Z - 110045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe wind and marginally severe hail will be possible through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed in the upslope regime across northeastern New Mexico this evening and across portions of the Texas Panhandle near the Cap Rock. Additional development will continue into the early evening across these regions. Across northeastern New Mexico into southern Colorado, large temperature-dew point spreads (with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid 50s) and steep low to mid-level lapse rate profiles will support isolated severe wind potential with stronger cores. Additionally, deep layer shear around 25-30 kts may support a few isolated instances of small to marginally severe hail. Across the Texas Panhandle, moderate instability is in place amid temperatures in the 80s to 90s amid mid 50s to 60s dew points. Deeply mixed profiles with steep lapse rates throughout will support potential for downbursts locally severe wind with stronger cores. A recent gust to 67 mph was measured in Carson County. Weak shear profiles will likely limit any hail potential. ..Thornton/Smith.. 09/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35900233 36410283 37090342 37520402 37730464 37570534 36960563 35610504 34670405 33630218 33760116 34720106 35480137 35900233 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN